The world is facing a potential El Niño crisis, and it's not just about the weather. This phenomenon, which occurs every few years, involves a warming of the sea surface temperature in the tropical eastern Pacific, and it's already causing significant disruptions. But this time, it's not just the usual suspects like cocoa, food oils, rice, and sugar that are at risk. The Iran war, a key player in the global fertilizer market, is exacerbating the situation, and the consequences could be dire for global food security.
The El Niño Effect
El Niño, meaning 'the little boy' in Spanish, is a natural climate pattern that occurs when sea temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific rise 0.5 degrees Celsius above the long-term average. A 'super El Niño' is an exceptionally strong phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, with sea surface temperatures rising at least 2 degrees Celsius above normal. This year, climate scientists are warning that a super El Niño is likely, with U.S. meteorologists estimating a one-in-three chance of a strong weather event forming in October to December.
The Impact on Fertilizers and Food Prices
The Iran war has severely disrupted supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for global fertilizer trade. This has led to skyrocketing oil and gas prices and fertilizer costs, which are energy-intensive and rely on natural gas for production. The situation is particularly dire for nitrogen-based fertilizers, which are crucial for crop growth. As a result, food prices are being squeezed from both sides: by climate extremes and by the food system's dependence on fossil fuels.
The Risk to Global Food Security
The consequences of a super El Niño could be devastating for global food security. The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) has warned that the number of food-insecure people could reach levels not seen since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war. The WFP estimates that if the Iran war persists and oil prices stay above $100 per barrel, 45 million more people could face acute hunger, adding to the 318 million already food-insecure.
The Role of International Collaboration
The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit's Chris Jaccarini emphasizes the importance of international collaboration in addressing these risks. With traditional geopolitical partnerships under strain, reducing food price volatility depends on reaching net zero together. Climate finance from wealthy nations to producer countries with low climate readiness can help farmers adapt and protect crops and livelihoods.
The Way Forward
As we face the prospect of a super El Niño, it's clear that the world needs to take action. The impact on fertilizers and food prices is already being felt, and the consequences for global food security could be severe. It's time for a global effort to address the underlying causes of these disruptions and ensure a more resilient and sustainable food system for the future.
